The other day I railed against leftists who were blaming George Bush for the turmoil in Iraq (the last paragraph here). I want to strengthen what I said there by pointing out that no matter how wonderful Iraq may have been before we got there in 2003 (and I don't think it was wonderful at all), the Arab Spring is likely to have caused problems, just as it did in neighboring Syria. In Syria, the majority Sunnis are ruled by someone who isn’t Sunni, while in Iraq under Saddam Hussein, the majority Shi’ites were ruled by a Sunni. It was very likely that there would have been turmoil there, just as there has been in neighboring Syria. I won’t say that what we are now seeing would be replicated exactly, but that there would be turmoil is a reasonable projection, even if we hadn’t invaded.