As far as I can tell, Catalonian independence is dead in the water. The Spanish government killed it by bringing a gun to what wasn’t yet a knife fight. I thought this was an over-reaction on their part, but it seems to have done the job, as far as they’re concerned. Aside from generating some protests from rank-and-file separatists, I can’t see that this will lead to independence. Does Catalonia have an army that they are willing to use? It doesn’t seem like it. Maybe they will resort to terrorism like the Basques used to do, but I’m not even sure about that.
The lesson here is not at all what some were imagining at the start of the independence campaign. The lesson now is not going to be about the independence of other regions of Spain or of Scotland or of California. No, it’s going to be about using force and how effective it is. For the last fifty years or so, there have been protests by people who basically were allowed to do whatever they wanted without generating much in the way of backlash from the authorities. This time it was different. We all know that things could be different at our colleges and universities, if administrations simply said that anyone shouting down an invited speaker would be expelled. That would take care of the matter forever. Likewise, if the police simply arrested members of Antifa whenever they got violent and if the courts gave them harsh sentences, then their street violence would end rather quickly.
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