Sorry, readers, but I’ve gotten too busy with my “job,” which is speculating in the stock market. I’m going to go to a weekends-only schedule.
And speaking of speculating in the stock market, Michael Burry has a strange pick to survive what he thinks is an upcoming crash: Tailored Brands (TLRD). (See here for his views about the crash.) Burry, by the way, is one of the people highlighted in Michael Lewis’s The Big Short, who figured out ahead of time that there would be a big problem with bad mortgages in 2007, many of which had been bundled together into AAA-rated bonds. He is now saying that all the money being diverted into index funds will cause a vicious spiral downwards once there are enough people trying to get out of them, since so many of the stocks that are part of these funds are companies with comparatively low liquidity. So, there will be many people trying to sell, but few trying to buy. Thus, getting out of them will be like getting out of a crowded theater with only one door.
Whether one buys into this argument or not, Burry has chosen a selection of stocks that includes Tailored Brands. See here. And as the narrator of that link points out, it has declined a lot in the last few years. So, why buy it? I foolishly bought some a few months ago, and sold it at a loss. It has gone down since then, except for a recent blip, and that blip no doubt was due to the news that Burry had bought it. It then went back to going down, and there is no good reason to think it will go up very much. As one analyst – I can’t remember who – pointed out, selling men’s suits is an industry in decline since fewer men wear suits to work. (I just got back from a classical orchestra concert in which not one man was wearing one.) So, even if they manage to get turned around, I can’t see that they will gain a lot.
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