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another fred

The logarithmic (log) graph reveals information about rates of change. A log graph that is concave up is increasing at an increasing rate, concave down is increasing at a decreasing rate, typical, respectively, of early and late stages of an epidemic.

The slopes (rate of increase or decrease) are also more evident.

I think the point here is that the "second wave" is (may be) breaking sooner than the first.

another fred

My previous comment was incomplete in that concavity up only shows an increasing at an increasing rate if the slope is positive (up and to the right in these graphs). If the slope is downward but concave up it is decreasing etc..

John Pepple


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