There is a paradox about an unexpected examination that goes like this. A professor announces that sometime next week there will be an unexpected examination and that the students should be prepared for it. The students reason that if by Thursday night, they haven’t had the exam, then it will have to be given on Friday. Since they know this, it won’t be unexpected, and so Friday is eliminated as a possible day for the exam. But on Wednesday night if they haven’t had the exam, they can reason that since Friday is already eliminated, it will have to be given on Thursday, but then it will be expected, so Thursday is also eliminated. By similar reasoning, they can eliminate Wednesday, Tuesday, and Monday as well. So, there can’t be an unexpected exam in the coming week. Or so they reason. The professor, of course, can still surprise them with an exam on Tuesday, and it will be unexpected since they had reasoned that it could not be given at all and will still be unexpected.
Anyway, I was reminded of this silly paradox by the talk of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. There are some differences. No one is saying the invasion will be unexpected, but that’s what we usually expect invasions to be, don’t we? And the people announcing the invasion (Westerners like Biden) are not the people doing the invasion (the Russians). Of course, we were told it was going to happen this past Wednesday, but it didn’t. And now we’re being told that it will happen next week, but it probably won’t.
Actually, the more I think about this, the more people like Biden resemble those religious cults who insist the world will end on a certain date, and when the date comes and goes without the end of the world, they then predict a date in the future when the world will really end.
But assuming the Russians will invade, maybe they will do so when our idiot elites stop making predictions. After all, it seems stupid to do it during any period when our elites say it’s likely to happen. If you know that your enemy expects you to invade on a certain day, then you know they will be ready for you on that day, so there is no point in invading when they are most ready for you.